Iraq Is Fueling Muslim Radicalism Globally, U.S. Says (Update2)
By Brendan Murray and Jeff Bliss
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Anger over the war in Iraq is fueling Muslim radicalism, and the dispersal of terrorist cells around the world poses a greater risk of attacks on the U.S., according to excerpts of a National Intelligence Assessment.
The four-page document, posted last night on the Web site of the Director of National Intelligence, said that while U.S. counterterrorism efforts have ``seriously damaged'' al-Qaeda's leadership, the terrorist movement is growing and becoming more decentralized. The threat of attacks worldwide will increase if current trends continue, it says.
``We assess that the operational threat from self- radicalized cells will grow in importance to U.S. counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the homeland,'' according to the excerpts labeled ``key judgments'' from an April National Intelligence Estimate.
Release of the document comes six weeks before congressional elections in which Democrats are attempting to make the war in Iraq a central issue and Republicans are trying to portray themselves as best equipped to combat terrorism.
Democrats seized on the assessment, a consensus of intelligence analysts from 16 federal agencies including the Central intelligence Agency, to advance their argument that the war in Iraq has made the U.S. less safe. Bush and his fellow Republicans have countered that Iraq is a central front in the war against terrorism and a defeat for extremists there will be a serious blow to extremists worldwide.
Role of Iraq
Both sides could point to portions of the document to make their cases.
``The Iraq conflict has become a `cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement,'' the report says. ``Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.''
Some of the conclusions conflict with past statements by members of the administration, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The report addresses a question posed by Rumsfeld in a widely publicized October 2003 memo to his top aides: ``Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?''
The intelligence findings said: ``A large body of all- source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in number and geographic dispersion.''
New Generation of Terrorists
It also says that the war in Iraq ``is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives.''
A White House official said the conclusions are consistent with Bush's repeated statements that the war in Iraq is a crucial component of the strategy to defeat terrorism and to make the U.S. less prone to attack.
``I don't think that there's any question that we're safer,'' Frances Townsend, Bush's homeland security adviser, said in a conference call after release of the document. ``This is a long war because it's not only a battle of arms but it's a battle of ideas, and the battle of ideas is going to be a long- term battle.''
Bush ordered declassification of the ``key judgments'' from the intelligence assessment after disclosure of the document in the New York Times and Washington Post on Sept. 24 brought renewed criticism of his policies in Iraq from Democrats.
New Life
The declassified excerpt ``pretty much confirms'' what was reported by the newspapers, said Larry Korb, a senior fellow and defense analyst at the Center for American Progress, a Democratic-leaning policy group in Washington. ``Al-Qaeda was in big trouble after we went into Afghanistan and it's taken on a new life after the invasion of Iraq.''
Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon intelligence expert who is now a defense policy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the findings weren't surprising.
Opinion polls have shown for some time ``the war in Iraq had become a major source of Arab resentment,'' he said.
`They Understand'
At a White House news conference yesterday, Bush said he wasn't surprised that terrorists were exploiting the situation in Iraq. ``They're using it as a recruitment tool because they understand the stakes,'' he said.
To believe that radicals would fade away if the U.S. wasn't in Iraq is to ``ignore 20 years of experience,'' Bush said, citing the Sept. 11 attacks and other strikes against the U.S.
``If we weren't in Iraq, they'd find some other excuse, because they have ambitions,'' Bush said. ``They kill in order to achieve their objectives.''
His allies in Congress echoed that stance. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the second ranking Republican in the Senate, said ``defeating terrorists in Iraq not only secures that new democracy, but prevents future attacks here at home,'' he said.
Democrats drew the opposite conclusion.
Representative Jane Harman of California, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said that the report shows that ``contrary to the president's assertions, our failed strategy in Iraq has exacerbated the threat against us.''
``The president says that fighting them `there' makes it less likely we will have to fight them `here,''' she said. ``The opposite is true. Because we are fighting them there, it may become more likely that we'll have to fight them here.''
Bush contended the report was leaked for political purposes. ``Here we are, coming down the stretch in an election campaign and it's on the front page of your newspapers,'' he said. ``Isn't that interesting?''
Public View
The president is facing a public increasingly skeptical about the conflict. In a Sept. 16-19 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, 55 percent of adults said the war was not worthwhile and 60 percent said it was diverting resources that could be used to fight terrorism.
Stu Rothenberg, a political analyst who is editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said by releasing the report the administration may be seeking to keep the focus of the public on the terrorist threat, an approach that has helped Bush's approval ratings in recent polls.
``In the near-term, it is hard to see how this helps the administration's case,'' Rothenberg said. ``They are going to be on the defensive, at least for a few days, as the Democrats play `I told you so.'''
Still, he said, the administration ``was pretty effective for a couple of weeks in talking about terror, and all the president is doing to try to keep America safe, and I am sure they will go back to that well again.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Brendan Murray in Washington at brmurray@bloomberg.net Jeff Bliss in Washington jbliss@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 27, 2006 09:35 EDT
